Global economic activity indicator: the Suez Canal

Interesting post on The Economist about an alternative indicator for world economic growth. About 8% of the world's international trade passes through the Suez Canal, so the amount of cargo on the ships can be a good early indicator of global economic activity.

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The Suez Canal Authority has nice detailed reports of overall activity, and according to the annual report for 2010 [.pdf], 105 different flags passed through the canal in 2010, compared to 87 flags in 2009. Looking at the tonnage, there was an increase of 15.2%, from 734.5 million tons in 2009 to 846.4 million tons in 2010. 

From all the things passing through there, the highest gain in tonnage was liquified natural gas, or LNG, with a gain of 38.1 million tons, or a whopping 72.1% increase from 2009. It seems like the natural gas story is right at our front door.

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The same report also has an interesting chart on the evolution of the number of ships and the net tonnage starting from 1975.

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Seems like economic activity flattened in the early 1980s, and less and less vessels were needed to move the same weight of cargo. The latter could indicate advances in ship technology, or if cargo size was the limiting factor, the world started using lighter materials, or it could indicate a combination of both. Then everything ripped higher starting in 2000, thanks to the global growth story.